- Title
- Technological substitution in the electricity sector
- Creator
- Tan, Hao; Mathews, John A.
- Relation
- 21st International Conference on Management of Technology (IAMOT 2012) . Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Management of Technology (Hsinchu, Taiwan 18-22 March, 2012) p. 1-15
- Publisher
- International Association for Management of Technology (IAMOT)
- Resource Type
- conference paper
- Date
- 2012
- Description
- A fundamental transformation of the electric sector from a fossil fuel-based to a renewable sources-based energy system is being underway in many countries, among which Germany and China are arguably two world leaders. Unlike many technology substitutions of commercial products in the history that were predominately driven by market forces, the substitution of fossil fuel-based electricity by renewable electricity is greatly underpinned by considerations for environment and energy security, and strongly pursued and supported by government policies. In this paper, therefore, we argue that the targets established by governments can serve as a basis in a logistic substitution analysis for better capturing the competition dynamics between the conventional and renewable sources in the electricity sector. We employ a well-known logistic technology substitution model, namely the Fisher-Pry model, for such an analysis in the context of the electricity sector in Germany and China. The F-P model has proven a simple yet powerful tool and has been widely used for analysis of many technological substitution processes in the history. We incorporate targets set by the government or estimated by the quasi-government organization in the two countries into the F-D models as parameters to estimates the long-term trajectories of shares of renewable electricity in total electricity generation up to 2050. The estimates on a yearly basis are then used for further estimates of electricity generation from renewable sources in the absolute term. In total, we estimate renewable sources would provide 11,119 TWh and 122,820 TWh of electricity in Germany and China respectively between 2010 and 2050.
- Subject
- conventional electricity; renewable electricity; competing technologies; logistic analysis
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1356919
- Identifier
- uon:31822
- Identifier
- ISBN:0981581757
- Language
- eng
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